Archive

All of our previous posts

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect Is Real. I Tested It on 26 Years of SPY to Prove It.

Sep 26, 2026

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5 min read

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect Is Real. I Tested It on 26 Years of SPY to Prove It.

322 turn-of-month events, 26 years of SPY, and a walk-forward split that shows the edge held while the opportunity cost of the rest of the calendar went up

A Robust Pairs Trading Strategy With KO and PEP in Python

Sep 22, 2026

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6 min read

A Robust Pairs Trading Strategy With KO and PEP in Python

How I built a market‐neutral strategy on Coca‐Cola and Pepsi, with rolling beta, z‐scores, and a realistic backtest.

Ayrat Murtazin

I Backtested the Classic RSI(2) Mean-Reversion Strategy on 26 Years of SPY. 181 Trades, 82% Win Rate — Here's the Honest Result.

Sep 18, 2026

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4 min read

I Backtested the Classic RSI(2) Mean-Reversion Strategy on 26 Years of SPY. 181 Trades, 82% Win Rate — Here's the Honest Result.

181 trades, an honest walk-forward split, and the real tradeoff nobody shows you: it loses on raw return but cuts drawdown by 75%

I Built a 3-Factor Stock-Ranking Model on 29 Mega-Caps. The Best Single Factor Beat My "Smarter" Combined Model.

Sep 16, 2026

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4 min read

I Built a 3-Factor Stock-Ranking Model on 29 Mega-Caps. The Best Single Factor Beat My "Smarter" Combined Model.

A full quant research report: factor construction, correlation analysis, portfolio combination — and an honest look at why diversifying factors didn't do what the textbook promised

Ayrat Murtazin

The Calm Before the Storm: Trading Silver's Volatility Squeezes

Sep 13, 2026

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5 min read

The Calm Before the Storm: Trading Silver's Volatility Squeezes

A volatility-contraction system that trades both directions on silver — and an honest look at the parameter tuning that took it from losing money to a real edge

Ayrat Murtazin

I Tested a Japanese Trend-Following System From the 1930s — On Gold

Sep 10, 2026

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4 min read

I Tested a Japanese Trend-Following System From the 1930s — On Gold

Five lines, a shaded cloud, and 21 years of data: building the full Ichimoku system from scratch, and why gold — not SPY — was the fair test for it

Ayrat Murtazin

$1 in SPY During Market Hours Since 2000 Is Worth $1.35 Today. Overnight, It's Worth $6.22.

Sep 8, 2026

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6 min read

$1 in SPY During Market Hours Since 2000 Is Worth $1.35 Today. Overnight, It's Worth $6.22.

One of the most well-documented anomalies in market microstructure, rebuilt from scratch, turned into an actual filtered strategy, and backtested honestly across 26 years

Ayrat Murtazin

The Simplest Trend-Following System Ever Built Still Turned $1 Into $150+ on Bitcoin — Here's the Full Backtest

Sep 6, 2026

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6 min read

The Simplest Trend-Following System Ever Built Still Turned $1 Into $150+ on Bitcoin — Here's the Full Backtest

The 1980s Strategy That Still Turned $1 Into $150+ on Bitcoin

Ayrat Murtazin

The Market Has Two Moods. I Taught a Model to Tell Them Apart.

Sep 4, 2026

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7 min read

The Market Has Two Moods. I Taught a Model to Tell Them Apart.

Detecting bull and bear regimes with a Hidden Markov Model — 19 years of SPY, walked forward with zero lookahead, and what happens when you only show up for one of the two moods

Ayrat Murtazin

Archive

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect Is Real. I Tested It on 26 Years of SPY to Prove It.

A Robust Pairs Trading Strategy With KO and PEP in Python

I Backtested the Classic RSI(2) Mean-Reversion Strategy on 26 Years of SPY. 181 Trades, 82% Win Rate — Here's the Honest Result.

I Built a 3-Factor Stock-Ranking Model on 29 Mega-Caps. The Best Single Factor Beat My "Smarter" Combined Model.

The Calm Before the Storm: Trading Silver's Volatility Squeezes

I Tested a Japanese Trend-Following System From the 1930s — On Gold

$1 in SPY During Market Hours Since 2000 Is Worth $1.35 Today. Overnight, It's Worth $6.22.

The Simplest Trend-Following System Ever Built Still Turned $1 Into $150+ on Bitcoin — Here's the Full Backtest

The Market Has Two Moods. I Taught a Model to Tell Them Apart.

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