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Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Estimating Conditional Probability of Price Movements
LockSimple

Jan 20, 2026

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22 min read

Estimating Conditional Probability of Price Movements

Probability Of Price Changes Occurring Conditional On Initial Price Changes

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Predicting Default Risk with the Distance-to-Default Model

Jan 19, 2026

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23 min read

Predicting Default Risk with the Distance-to-Default Model

Using the Merton Model to Estimate Credit Risk, Simulate Default Probabilities, and Assess Financial Stability.

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Estimating Bid-Ask Spreads From OHLC Prices
LockSimple

Jan 18, 2026

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24 min read

Estimating Bid-Ask Spreads From OHLC Prices

Efficient Estimation of Rolling Spreads from Open, High, Low, and Close Data Using Moment Conditions, and GMM Weighting.

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

How to Use Python to Decode Yahoo's Most Active Stocks List
LockSimple

Jan 17, 2026

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20 min read

How to Use Python to Decode Yahoo's Most Active Stocks List

A Complete Python Tutorial Using Pomegranate, Baum-Welch, and Viterbi to Detect Bull, Bear, and High-Volatility States

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Rate of Change (ROC) vs Buy & Hold: Can a Simple Momentum Strategy Beat Bitcoin's Buy-and-Hold?

Jan 15, 2026

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15 min read

Rate of Change (ROC) vs Buy & Hold: Can a Simple Momentum Strategy Beat Bitcoin's Buy-and-Hold?

Optimizing a classic technical indicator with Bayesian methods – real results from 2023–2024 backtest

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

I Backtested the 200-Day Moving Average Strategy on 10 Big Tech Stocks
LockSimple

Jan 14, 2026

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6 min read

I Backtested the 200-Day Moving Average Strategy on 10 Big Tech Stocks

Does the 200-Day MA Actually Beat Buy and Hold?

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Sharpe Ratio vs. Total Return – A Tale of Two Moving Average Crossovers
LockSimple

Jan 13, 2026

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14 min read

Sharpe Ratio vs. Total Return – A Tale of Two Moving Average Crossovers

Comparing Risk-Adjusted Performance and Raw Returns in a Simple DMAC Strategy on NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock (2015–2024)

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Mastering Portfolio Optimization: Visualizing the Efficient Frontier with Real Stock Data

Jan 12, 2026

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18 min read

Mastering Portfolio Optimization: Visualizing the Efficient Frontier with Real Stock Data

A Complete Python Tutorial Using Pomegranate, Baum-Welch, and Viterbi to Detect Bull, Bear, and High-Volatility States

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin

Algorithmic Trading Strategies

I Put the Two Most Popular Trading Strategies to the Test with Bayesian Optimization
LockSimple

Jan 11, 2026

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24 min read

I Put the Two Most Popular Trading Strategies to the Test with Bayesian Optimization

Can These Strategies Beat the Market?

Ayrat Murtazin
Ayrat Murtazin
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