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The Volatility Cone: A Quant's Tool for Mapping Price Uncertainty

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② One strategy in this book returned 2.3× the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis over 5 years.

Fully coded in Python. Yours to run today.

The 2026 Playbook — 30+ backtested strategies,
full code included, ready to deploy.

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Premium Members – Your Full Notebook Is Ready

The complete Google Colab notebook from today’s article (with live data, full Hidden Markov Model, interactive charts, statistics, and one-click CSV export) is waiting for you.

Preview of what you’ll get:

Inside the SMA Strategy Lab

  • 📥 Auto-fetches GSPC.INDX data — Integrated with EODHD APIs to pull 10 years of historical daily price action.

  • 📡 Low-Pass Filter Logic — Explains how to separate high-frequency market "noise" from the underlying "signal" using DSP principles.

  • 🛡️ Bias-Free Signal Engine — Implements causal math using .shift(1) to strictly eliminate lookahead bias and "seeing the future."

  • ⚖️ Lag-Length Analysis — Quantifies the trade-off between smoothness and responsiveness ($Lag \approx \frac{N-1}{2}$) across 5 different time horizons.

  • 🔄 Multi-Window Backtester — Runs 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) strategies simultaneously.

  • 📊 Risk-Adjusted Scorecard — Calculates Sharpe Ratios, Annualized Volatility, and Max Drawdowns for every window.

  • 📉 Drawdown Heatmaps — Visualizes the peak-to-trough pain for each strategy to identify which window survives market crashes best.

  • 📈 Comparative Visualization — Generates 6+ high-resolution charts, including equity curves, rolling volatility, and performance bar charts.

  • 🗃️ Performance Matrix — Consolidates all results into a clean, rounded pandas table ready for export or further quantitative research.

Free readers – you already got the full breakdown and visuals in the article. Paid members – you get the actual tool.

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Google Collab Notebook With Full Code Is Available In the End Of The Article Behind The Paywall 👇 (For Paid Subs Only)

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