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Someone just spent $236,000,000 on a painting. Here’s why it matters for your wallet.

Late last year, a Klimt sold for the highest price ever paid for modern art at auction.

An outlier sure, but it wasn't a fluke. U.S. auction sales grew 23.1% in 2025. The $1-5mm segment even grew 40.8% YoY.

Meanwhile, Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok said to expect ‘zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade.’

Each environment is unique, but after dot-com, post war and contemporary art grew about 24% annually for a decade. After 2008, about 11% for 12 years.

It’s also had near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 since ‘95.*

Now, Masterworks lets you invest in shares of artworks featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

  • $1.3 billion invested across over 500 artworks.

  • 28 sales to date. 

  • Net annualized returns on sold works held 12 months+ like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.

Shares can sell quickly, but my subscribers can skip the waitlist:

*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

② One strategy in this book returned 2.3× the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis over 5 years.

Fully coded in Python. Yours to run today.

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Premium Members – Your Full Notebook Is Ready

The complete Google Colab notebook from today’s article (with live data, full Hidden Markov Model, interactive charts, statistics, and one-click CSV export) is waiting for you.

Preview of what you’ll get:

Inside the Strategy Lab

  • Section 2 — Markov property explained with a hand-drawn state transition diagram (built in matplotlib) showing Bull/Bear/Sideways nodes with illustrative transition probabilities — no external image needed

  • Section 3define_market_states() with rolling return thresholds, SPY price scatter plot coloured by regime, and estimate_transition_matrix() with a clean heatmap showing persistence on the diagonal

  • Section 4 — Chapman-Kolmogorov multi-step forecasting via np.linalg.matrix_power, a convergence fan chart showing all starting states collapsing to the stationary distribution, and the find_stationary_distribution() solver with a bar chart output

  • Section 5compute_trading_signal() converting probabilities to positions, full walk-forward backtest with daily P re-estimation, three-panel chart (equity curves, drawdown, position over time), rolling 6-month Sharpe

  • Section 6 — Complete MarkovChainTradingSystem class packaging all components into a clean API with one-line execution

  • Section 7fit_market_hmm() with multi-start Baum-Welch (10 random seeds, keeps best log-likelihood), posterior probability fan chart, hmm_signal() with rolling-window inference, and a three-way comparison chart (Observable Markov vs HMM vs Buy & Hold)

  • Section 8 — Data sufficiency checker (flags any transition with fewer than 20 observations), window sensitivity analysis across 63/126/252/504-day lookbacks, and a critical assumptions table

Free readers – you already got the full breakdown and visuals in the article. Paid members – you get the actual tool.

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Google Collab Notebook With Full Code Is Available In the End Of The Article Behind The Paywall 👇 (For Paid Subs Only)

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