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Image Inference: Applying YOLO to predict ups and downs using static candlestick images of stock price data.
Video Inference: Predicting market movements on video data.
Live Screen Recording Inference: Capturing and analyzing live screen data for real-time market predictions.
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The application of YOLO to predict stock market trends offers an interesting alternative, particularly for real-time applications.
This article explores how to fine-tune a YOLOv8 model to predict market ups and downs. A sneak-peak of the results are shown below.
This article is structured as follows:
Image Inference: Applying YOLO to predict ups and downs using static candlestick images of stock price data.
Video Inference: Predicting market movements on video data.
Live Screen Recording Inference: Capturing and analyzing live screen data for real-time market predictions.
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1. Backgound Information
In a previous article on candlestick pattern recognition with YOLO, we explored the effectiveness of YOLOv8 in identifying stock price candlesticks patterns.
The model was capable of recognizing key patterns like ‘Head and Shoulders,’ ‘Triangle,’ and ‘W-Bottom’ with some time in advance.
Building on these findings, we aim now to use YOLO not just for identifying patterns but for predicting future market movements.
Fine-Tuning YOLO
To address some limitations previoulsy discussed (e.g. look ahead-bias), analysts are encouraged to explore the training of their own model.
Fine-tuning YOLO involves adapting the pre-trained model to a specific dataset. This enhances its ability to recognize custom patterns.
Follow these steps to fine-tune YOLO for candlestick pattern recognition:
Prepare the Dataset: Gather a diverse dataset of images of candlestick charts with their annotation. Ensure that it contains various patterns and conditions of the market. Modify the training images and annotations such that the results of the trend (i.e. what happens after the annotation of the ups and downs) are excluded.
Modify the Model: The model architecture should be adapted to fit the new task at hand; this involve setting the number of classes, along with tuning hyperparameters.
Train the Model: Train the model on the annotated dataset for a number of epochs by adjusting the weights to minimize detection loss.
Evaluate and Fine-Tune: Assess the performance of the model on the validation set. Fine-tune with the results.
2. Python Implementation
2.1 Install and Load Libraries
First, let’s install the necessary libraries:
!pip install ultralyticsplus mplfinance yfinance
# Load libraries
import cv2
import requests
import os
from ultralyticsplus import YOLO, render_result
import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
import mplfinance as mpf
from PIL import Image
import numpy as np2.2 Load Model and Make Inference
Break down the process of loading the model and making inferences into multiple functions.
This means i) fetching stock data, prepare it, abdcreate candlestick charts ii) Load the YOLO model and predict the trends in the images.
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To fetch stock data, we use the yfinance library:
def fetch_stock_data(symbol, start_date, end_date):
data = yf.download(symbol, start=start_date, end=end_date)
return dataWe then prepare the dataset for analysis:
def prepare_data(data):
data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(data.index)
data['High'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
data['Low'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
return dataCandlestick charts can be created with mplfinance . This format is required for the model we are using.
def create_candlestick_chart(data, save_path):
mpf.plot(data, type='candle', style='charles', title='Stock Price', ylabel='Price', savefig=save_path)Then, load the YOLO model and set the specific parameters to optimize its performance:
def load_model(model_path):
model = YOLO(model_path)
model.overrides['conf'] = 0.25
model.overrides['iou'] = 0.45
model.overrides['agnostic_nms'] = False
model.overrides['max_det'] = 1
return modelWe then read the image, and predict the ‘ups’ and ‘downs’ with the fine-tuned YOLO:
def predict_trends(model, chart_path):
image = cv2.imread(chart_path)
results = model.predict(image, verbose=False)
render = render_result(model=model, image=image, result=results[0])
return renderThe main function puts everything together. It fetches and prepares the data and then generates the predictions and finally saves the results:
def main():
symbol = 'ASML.AS'
start_date = '2023-01-01'
end_date = '2023-05-31'
model_path = 'foduucom/stockmarket-future-prediction'
chart_save_path = 'candlestick_chart.png'
data = fetch_stock_data(symbol, start_date, end_date)
data = prepare_data(data)
if data.empty:
print(f"No data found for the given date range: {start_date} to {end_date}")
return
create_candlestick_chart(data, chart_save_path)
model = load_model(model_path)
render = predict_trends(model, chart_save_path)
render.save('prediction_result.png')
print(f"Prediction result saved as prediction_result.png")
if __name__ == '__main__':
main()After running the main function, you can visualize the prediction result:
from IPython.display import Image
Image(filename='/content/prediction_result.png')
Figure 1. The YOLO model identifies a potential ‘down’ trend in the stock price with a confidence score of 0.34.
The YOLO model predicts a “down” trend with a confidence score of 0.34. This is shown within a red bounding box on the candlestick chart.
A significant limitation is that the model has been trained on historical data, which potentially includes the outcomes. We don’t have access
Creating a script to produce such data automatically and fine-tuning from scratch would be the best way forward.
Future training must exclude the results. It must focus only on patterns leading up to “up” or “down” events.
We will explore these limitations further in a live “trading” simulation to assess the model’s performance in real-time conditions.
2.3 Video File Inference
You should have access to a sample video for inference. If not, you can download and process the following video:
# Google Drive file ID
#file_id = "1LgaKNgXhv1rdqH08j9vxeDbcMb2YDCZ8"
file_id = "1qKUtpeAK8OxxIn1DPbK0KQgDZnz01Ig8"
# Construct the direct download URL
image_url = f"https://drive.google.com/uc?id={file_id}"
output_path = "video_input.mp4"
# Download the image
gdown.download(image_url, output_path, quiet=False)We’ll partion the video into frames and predict each frame. We’ll stitch the frames into a video again later on.
The following function achieves that:
from IPython.display import HTML, display
from base64 import b64encode
def show_preds_video(video_path, model_path, output_video_path='output_video.mp4', frame_skip=5, image_size=640, conf_threshold=0.25, iou_threshold=0.45):
"""
Process video frames with YOLO model and annotate the frames.
"""
cap = cv2.VideoCapture(video_path) # Open the video file
fourcc = cv2.VideoWriter_fourcc(*'mp4v') # Define the codec for the output video
out = cv2.VideoWriter(output_video_path, fourcc, 20.0, (int(cap.get(3)), int(cap.get(4)))) # Create a VideoWriter object to save the output video
frame_count = 0 # Initialize frame count
while cap.isOpened(): # Loop through frames
success, frame = cap.read() # Read a frame from the video
if success:
if frame_count % frame_skip == 0: # Process every nth frame, as specified by frame_skip
model = YOLO(model_path) # Load the YOLO model
model.overrides['conf'] = conf_threshold # Set the confidence threshold for predictions
model.overrides['iou'] = iou_threshold # Set the IoU threshold for Non-Maximum Suppression
model.overrides['agnostic_nms'] = False # NMS class-agnostic setting
model.overrides['max_det'] = 1000 # Maximum number of detections per frame
results = model.predict(frame) # Perform inference on the frame
annotated_frame = results[0].plot() # Annotate the frame with detection results
out.write(annotated_frame) # Write the annotated frame to the output video
else:
out.write(frame) # Write the original frame to the output video if not processed
frame_count += 1 # Increment the frame count
else:
break # Break the loop if no frame is read (end of video)
cap.release() # Release the video capture object
out.release() # Release the video writer object
#cv2.destroyAllWindows() # Close all OpenCV windows
# Return the path to the saved annotated video
return output_video_path
def display_video(video_path):
"""
Display the video in the notebook.
"""
display(HTML(f"""
<video width="600" controls>
<source src="{video_path}" type="video/mp4">
</video>
<a href="{video_path}" download>Download Video</a>
"""))
# Usage for video inference
video_path = '/content/video_input.mp4'
model_path = 'foduucom/stockmarket-future-prediction'
output_video_path = show_preds_video(video_path, model_path)
display_video(output_video_path)
2.4 Live Screen Recording
We now test the fine-tuned YOLO’s model for real-time prediction.
The model is implemented during a ‘live’ trading session by recording the screen in real-time.
Setting Up Live Screen Recording:
1. Capture Screen Data: pyautogui library is used to capture live screen data.
2. Process Frames: The YOLO model processes each captured frame to detect patterns and predict market movements.
3. Display Results: The annotated and predicted frames are displayed live along with confidence scores.
!pip install pyautogui
import cv2
import numpy as np
import pyautogui
from IPython.display import display, Image, clear_output
from ultralyticsplus import YOLO, render_result
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
def load_model(model_path):
model = YOLO(model_path)
model.overrides['conf'] = 0.25
model.overrides['iou'] = 0.45
model.overrides['agnostic_nms'] = False
model.overrides['max_det'] = 1000
return model
def capture_and_predict_screen(model_path, frame_skip=5):
"""
Capture the screen live, process frames with YOLO model, and display annotated frames.
"""
model = load_model(model_path) # Load the YOLO model
frame_count = 0 # Initialize frame count
while True:
screenshot = pyautogui.screenshot() # Capture the screen
frame = np.array(screenshot) # Convert the screenshot to a NumPy array
frame = cv2.cvtColor(frame, cv2.COLOR_BGR2RGB) # Convert the frame to RGB
if frame_count % frame_skip == 0: # Process every nth frame, as specified by frame_skip
results = model.predict(frame, verbose=False) # Perform inference on the frame
annotated_frame = render_result(model=model, image=frame, result=results[0]) # Annotate the frame with detection results
annotated_frame = np.array(annotated_frame) # Ensure the annotated frame is a NumPy array
else:
annotated_frame = frame
frame_count += 1 # Increment the frame count
# Encode frame as JPEG to display in notebook
_, img_encoded = cv2.imencode('.jpg', annotated_frame)
img_bytes = img_encoded.tobytes()
# Display frame in notebook
display(Image(data=img_bytes))
# Clear previous output
clear_output(wait=True)
# Break loop with keyboard interrupt
try:
key = cv2.waitKey(1)
if key == 27: # ESC key to exit
break
except KeyboardInterrupt:
break
cv2.destroyAllWindows()
# Execute function
model_path = 'foduucom/stockmarket-future-prediction'
capture_and_predict_screen(model_path)3. Key Limitations
Historical Bias in Training Data
One major limitation is that the model has been trained with historical data, including the outcomes.
This means the model recognizes patterns only after the results are known, leading to a bias that limits real-time prediction.
Data Diversity and Quality
The model’s accuracy heavily depends on the diversity and quality of the training data.
If the training data lacks variety or is not representative of different market conditions, the model’s predictions will be biased and less reliable.
Concluding Thoughts
A fine-tuned YOLO to predict stock market movements shows promise for real-time prediction applications. Future work should focus on refining the training process and ensuring data quality.
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